JRF estimates total cost of living increase of £2,550 between 2021/22 and 2022/23

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) published analysis on 5 August 2022 estimating that the cost of living for UK households would rise by £2,550 between 2021/22 and 2022/23¹. The estimate covers energy and non-energy costs and is based on the foundation's own methodology, drawing on Living Costs and Food Survey data, energy price cap figures and Bank of England inflation forecasts¹.

The breakdown is set out in the briefing as follows¹:

The JRF said the £2,550 figure does not deduct "normal" price increases over a year. It stated: "If we assumed these to be 2% as in the Bank of England target the £2,550 increase reduces to around £2,250."¹

On the support available to non-disabled working-age families on means-tested benefits, the analysis said the additional cost of living support package "amounts to £1,200 through a series of lump sum payments (£400 energy rebate, £150 Council Tax rebate and £650 lump sum benefit payment)"¹. It also noted that benefits had been uprated by the previous September's inflation rate, which it said was "a lot lower than the actual inflation in April 2022 (3.1% inflation in September which rose to 9.0% in April)", alongside an increase in the National Living Wage¹.

The energy part of the estimate was built from recorded gas and electricity spending by households in the first and middle equivalised income quintiles of the Living Costs and Food Survey for 2019/20, with the foundation assuming bottom-quintile households pay by prepayment meter and middle-income households by direct debit¹. For the price cap periods of October to December 2022 and January to March 2023, it used projected direct debit dual fuel tariffs for standard consumption as forecast by Cornwall Insight¹. The non-energy part applied Bank of England inflation forecasts excluding energy to ONS Family Spending data, using 2019/20 as a base because spending in 2020/21 was affected by coronavirus lockdowns¹.

Why it matters for households

The estimate describes the scale of the change in household costs over a single financial year, rather than a change in any one bill. Energy accounts for £1,550 of the £2,550 total, of which £1,150 was the increase expected as of May 2022 and £400 a further increase the foundation expected on top of that¹. The remaining £1,000 relates to non-energy spending, covering the wider range of goods and services households buy¹.

For families on means-tested benefits, the analysis sets the £1,200 of lump sum support against the £2,550 estimated increase¹. The briefing also points to the gap between the inflation rate used to uprate benefits, 3.1% in September, and the 9.0% rate recorded in April 2022¹. The figures are estimates for 2021/22 to 2022/23 as a whole, not forecasts of any individual household's bill, and the foundation notes that assuming 2% "normal" price increases would reduce the total to around £2,250¹.

What happens next

The briefing does not set out further dated steps. The energy figures rest partly on projected price cap levels for October to December 2022 and January to March 2023, which at the time of publication had not been confirmed¹.