Publication of poverty impact estimates for Budget 2025 social security changes

The Department for Work and Pensions published estimates on 26 November 2025 of the impact on low income poverty levels of social security changes announced at Budget 2025, including the removal of the two-child limit on Universal Credit¹.

The publication states that in November 2025 the UK government announced that from April 2026 it will be removing the two-child limit so that families can receive the child element of Universal Credit for all children regardless of family size¹. The main document is titled "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom"¹.

The page was updated twice after first publication. On 27 November 2025, figures in two tables were corrected: in Table 1 for FYE 2031 the figure for Individuals was corrected to -550,000, and in Table 2 for FYE 2031 the figure for Individuals was corrected to -400,000¹. On 4 December 2025 the data tables were updated to include an additional geographical breakdown¹.

Alongside the poverty estimates, the department published data on Universal Credit households not receiving a child element and not benefit capped, broken down by country and parliamentary constituency, for April 2025¹. The publication describes this as information on households and children who are affected by the two-child limit and not affected by the benefit cap, broken down by country and parliamentary constituency¹.

The published page does not set out the corrected figures for other years or the full contents of the tables, and no further breakdown of the estimates by nation or constituency has been reported beyond the description of the additional geographical breakdown¹.

Why it matters for households

The two-child limit restricts the child element of Universal Credit to a family's first two children, subject to exceptions covered in the two-child limit guide. The change described takes effect from April 2026, when families will be able to receive the child element for all children regardless of family size¹.

The estimates published cover the effect on low income poverty levels across the United Kingdom, with corrected figures given for FYE 2031 of -550,000 in Table 1 and -400,000 in Table 2 for Individuals¹. The accompanying data covers households and children affected by the two-child limit who are not affected by the benefit cap, broken down by country and parliamentary constituency, as at April 2025¹.

For families with more than two children who claim Universal Credit, the practical change is in the number of children for whom the child element can be paid, from April 2026¹. The separate Child Benefit rules, including the high income charge, are not part of this change as described in the publication¹.

What happens next

The removal of the two-child limit is stated to apply from April 2026¹. The publication was first published on 26 November 2025, corrected on 27 November 2025 and updated with an additional geographical breakdown on 4 December 2025¹. No further dates have been reported¹.