Publication of child low income poverty projections to FYE 2030

The Department for Work and Pensions published projections of child low income poverty trends covering the financial years ending 2025 to 2030 on 26 November 2025¹. The publication sets out an estimate of future trends after the government announced changes to the two-child limit¹.

The government announced in November 2025 that from April 2026 it will remove the two-child limit, so that families can receive the child element of Universal Credit for all children regardless of family size¹. The projections account for that announcement¹.

The publication is described as an estimate of future low income poverty trends for children after the policy was announced¹. It covers the period from the financial year ending 2025 to the financial year ending 2030¹. The document was published as research and analysis by the Department for Work and Pensions¹.

The publication page does not set out projected poverty rates or caseload figures in the text available; those are contained in the linked document¹. No numerical projections, and no breakdown by nation or region, have been reported in the material published on 26 November 2025¹.

Why it matters for households

The two-child limit restricts the child element of Universal Credit to a family's first two children, with exceptions. From April 2026, under the announced change, families will be able to receive the child element for all children regardless of family size¹. Households with three or more children who are affected by the limit are the group whose Universal Credit entitlement changes on that date¹.

The projections published on 26 November 2025 estimate how child low income poverty is expected to move over the years to the financial year ending 2030 once that change is taken into account¹. They are projections, not outturn figures, and they cover children in low income households rather than the caseload of any single benefit¹.

For families claiming Child Benefit, the two-child limit does not apply; it operates on the child element of Universal Credit¹. The published page does not state how the projections treat families in work, families with disabled children, or households in different parts of the UK¹.

What happens next

The removal of the two-child limit takes effect from April 2026, as announced in November 2025¹. The projections run to the financial year ending 2030¹. No further dates for updated projections have been reported¹.