JRF publishes analysis of proposed health-related benefit cuts

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) published a briefing on 26 June 2025 analysing the Government's proposed cuts to health-related benefits, concluding they would increase poverty rather than employment¹. JRF states the Government "has proposed the largest cuts to social security since 2015"¹.

The briefing says the reforms cut around £6.5 billion from social security for disabled people and carers by 2029/30, with 350,000 households set to lose more than 30% of their income¹. The average loss for affected households is £2,100 per year¹. Once the additional cost of disability is accounted for, 53% of the Bill's cuts fall on the poorest 20% of households; ignoring those additional costs, the figure is 24%¹.

JRF sets the cuts against the availability of work. Nationwide, it says there is 1 vacancy for every 7 people receiving unemployment or incapacity benefits, and just 1 disability-confident job advert for every 121 people receiving incapacity benefits, rising to 1:333 in ex-industrial areas¹. It also cites 1.5 million people searching for work on Universal Credit against 740,000 vacancies¹.

On the employment support side, JRF notes the Government's plan to invest an additional £1 billion per year in employment support by the end of the Parliament, and welcomes the end of the DWP's "any job, better job, career" approach¹. It estimates the new investment spent by 2029/30 is likely to support about 23,000 to 48,000 more disabled people into work, with total employment gains of 45,000 to 95,000 only realised once all funding is spent in 2030/31¹. It cites Resolution Foundation estimates that 105,000 people will find work, 3% of those affected, and that the cuts might lead to between 38,000 and 57,000 more people in paid work by 2029/30¹.

JRF also cites Trussell Trust projections of an additional 440,000 people in disabled households being forced into severe hardship and at risk of needing a food bank in 2029/30¹. It reports that 35% of households receiving Personal Independence Payment (PIP) already cannot afford enough food, a warm home, or to keep up with bills, rising to 55% where someone receives both PIP and Limited Capability for Work-Related Activity, against 11% for households receiving neither Universal Credit nor PIP¹.

Why it matters for households

The briefing concerns households receiving health-related benefits, including PIP and the health element of Universal Credit. JRF puts the average annual loss for affected households at £2,100 and says 350,000 households would lose more than 30% of their income after housing and disability costs, with 90% of those in the poorest fifth of households¹. It says more than 3 million people will lose from the reforms¹.

The employment gains the Government expects are disputed in the briefing. JRF says no official modelling of the labour market impacts has been published, and that its own reading of the evidence points to far smaller employment effects than the number of people losing support¹. It adds that 200,000 people receiving UC health elements or PIP could work now with the right support, and that the disability employment gap stands at 28%¹.

For households already receiving help with health costs, separate NHS health cost support and Child Benefit rules are unchanged by the proposals described here.

What happens next

JRF recommends the proposed cuts to health-related benefits be scrapped, while retaining other proposals in the Pathways to Work Green Paper, including investing in employment support, introducing Right to Try, and increasing the Universal Credit standard allowance¹. It also recommends continuing jobcentre reform and work with local government and employers on local labour markets¹. The briefing says the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to deliver its official projection in the Autumn¹.