Resolution Foundation publishes October 2023 cost of living survey findings

The Resolution Foundation published "Pressure on pay, prices and properties" on 14 December 2023, drawing on a YouGov survey of over 8,000 adults aged 18 and above that was in the field in October 2023, supported by the Health Foundation¹. The report examines how families were faring two years into the cost of living crisis, and finds that although some outcomes have improved slightly since November 2022, most indicators remain at levels far more concerning than two or more years ago¹.

On food insecurity, the report says over a fifth of people were in moderate or severe food insecurity in October 2023, almost three times as many as pre-pandemic levels, at 22 per cent versus 8 per cent¹. It adds that outcomes are consistently worse for people with disabilities compared to those without, and for those from Black ethnic groups compared to those from a White ethnic group¹.

On pay, employed working-age respondents were more than twice as likely to report that their pay had gone up than to say it had stayed the same or fallen, at 48 per cent versus 23 per cent¹. But almost a quarter of pay rises in the year to October 2023, 24 per cent, did not keep pace with inflation, including 7 per cent whose pay actually fell¹. A quarter of workers did not see their pay go up between October 2022 and October 2023¹.

On housing costs, over two-in-five working-age adults, 42 per cent, experienced a rise, excluding those without responsibility for paying housing costs. That is 12 percentage points more than in 2018-2019, when the figure was 30 per cent, and more than at any point in the past decade¹. Around two-fifths of working-age adults under 55 had seen their housing costs go up, compared to just a quarter, 25 per cent, of 55-64-year-olds¹.

The report estimates that around 7.4 million working-age adults experienced a housing cost rise over the year to October 2023, while at least 13.7 million got a pay rise¹. Among those whose housing costs rose, the typical rise was far higher than the typical pay rise for the same group, at 13 per cent and 5 per cent respectively¹. About one in seven working-age respondents, 14 per cent, saw both pay and housing costs increase, and a roughly similar number, 14 per cent, said their housing costs rose without their pay increasing, either because their employer did not offer a pay rise or they were not in work¹.

The report notes that the headline rate of CPI inflation fell from its October 2022 peak of 11.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent in October 2023, and that the Prime Minister was able to say his target of halving inflation in 2023 was met¹.

Why it matters for households

The findings describe the position of working-age adults in October 2023, at a point when the headline inflation rate had fallen to 4.6 per cent from its 11.1 per cent peak a year earlier¹. Falling inflation means prices are still rising, just less quickly, so the report's measures of pay and housing costs capture what happened to household budgets over the year to October 2023 rather than the effect of the inflation slowdown itself.

The groups the report identifies as most exposed are those whose housing costs rose without a matching pay rise: 14 per cent of working-age respondents fell into that category, either because their employer did not offer a pay rise or because they were not in work¹. For those who saw both go up, the typical housing cost rise of 13 per cent was more than double the typical pay rise of 5 per cent¹. The report also notes that people who have not received a pay rise at all are far less able to cope with rising prices than the average worker, and that someone who has renewed a mortgage or signed a new tenancy faces a bigger increase in outgoings than someone who owns outright or whose mortgage or rent is fixed¹.

The 22 per cent food insecurity figure is the report's headline measure of hardship, against 8 per cent pre-pandemic¹. The report does not set out new policy measures or their effect on household incomes.

What happens next

The report does not announce any further survey waves or publication dates beyond the October 2023 fieldwork, and no next steps have been reported¹. The YouGov survey data behind the findings was published alongside the report¹.