JRF analysis shows constituencies affected by possible benefit uprating cut

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) published analysis on 12 October 2022 of which parliamentary constituencies would be most affected if the Government chooses not to uprate means tested benefits such as Universal Credit in line with inflation¹. The charity describes the work as a "comprehensive analysis" of the constituencies affected by that choice¹.

JRF says 445 MPs, more than two thirds and around seven in ten, represent areas where at least one fifth (20%) of working-age families receive means tested benefits¹. It breaks those seats down as 193 Conservative, 180 Labour and 34 SNP¹. In all the so called "Red Wall" seats, the share rises to at least 24%¹. Every constituency has at least one in ten working-age families who would be affected by the suggested cut, according to the analysis¹. In Liz Truss's South West Norfolk constituency, 21% of working-age families are in that position¹.

The analysis also states that child benefit could be cut, affecting 80% of children across the UK¹. JRF has not set out in this publication how any such reduction would be designed or the cash amounts involved.

"More than 2/3rds of MPs, or 7 in 10, (445) represent areas where at least one fifth (20%) of working-age families receive means tested benefits"

Joseph Rowntree Foundation¹

Measure in JRF analysis	Figure
MPs representing areas where at least 20% of working-age families receive means tested benefits	445 (about 7 in 10)
Of those seats: Conservative	193
Of those seats: Labour	180
Of those seats: SNP	34
Share of working-age families on means tested benefits in "Red Wall" seats	at least 24%
Lowest share in any constituency	at least 1 in 10 working-age families
Share in South West Norfolk	21% of working-age families
Children affected if child benefit is cut	80% across the UK

Why it matters for households

Means tested benefits, including Universal Credit, are normally uprated each April, with the increase usually linked to the previous September's inflation figure. If rates are not raised in line with inflation, the cash amount a household receives stays flat while prices rise, so it buys less. The JRF analysis indicates how widely that would be felt: in every constituency, at least one in ten working-age families receive means tested benefits, and in 445 constituencies the figure is at least one in five¹. The same analysis says a cut to child benefit would affect 80% of children in the UK¹. The figures describe the reach of a possible change; they do not set out how much any individual household would lose, and no cash amounts have been published in this analysis.

What happens next

The analysis was published on 12 October 2022, ahead of the Government's decision on benefit uprating¹. No decision, timetable or confirmation of the uprating has been reported in this publication. The next inflation figures that would normally feed into an April uprating are published separately.

Sources1 cited