Quinquennial Review of the Fund (2020) published

The Quinquennial Review of the Fund (2020) was published on 17 March 2022, according to the Government Actuary's report on the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026 and the draft Social Security (Contributions) Regulations 2026¹. That review provided projections of the Great Britain National Insurance Fund up to 2085 and showed the Fund was projected to become exhausted within that projection period¹.

The 2022 review is the most recent long-term review of the Fund. The next Quinquennial Review, which will have an effective date of 1 April 2025, will provide an update to those longer-term projections and illustrations of the sensitivity of the results to demographic and other factors¹. The report notes that since the 2020 review there have been a number of changes to National Insurance contributions, as well as a period of unusually high inflation¹.

The same report sets out shorter-term projections of the Fund to 2030-2031. Under its principal assumptions, total Fund income in 2026-2027 is projected to be £173.6 billion and total expenditure £161.6 billion, leaving receipts exceeding payments by £12.0 billion and a Fund balance at 31 March 2027 of £101.6 billion¹. That balance is projected to be around 64% of estimated benefit expenditure of £159.9 billion, including redundancy payments, and to remain above the recommended minimum of one-sixth of benefit expenditure throughout the projection period¹. A Treasury Grant was last paid in the 2015-2016 financial year¹.

The report also covers measures announced in the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025, which it projects would increase Fund income by £0.4 billion in 2028-2029, £3.7 billion in 2029-2030 and £4.3 billion in 2030-2031¹. These comprise the extension of the freeze in most NICs limits and thresholds from April 2028 to April 2031, the National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill 2025, and the removal of access to Class 2 voluntary NICs from abroad together with higher initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026¹.

On the employer pensions measure, the report states:

The report also sets out the uprating of benefits paid from the Fund from April 2026. The full rate of the basic State Pension increases from £176.45 per week to £184.90 per week, and the full rate of the new State Pension increases from £230.25 per week to £241.30 per week¹. The projected increase in benefit expenditure in 2026-2027 as a result of the draft Order is £6.9 billion, taking projected expenditure on the benefits covered by the draft Order from £152.4 billion to £159.3 billion¹.

Why it matters for households

The 2022 review matters because it is the last published long-term assessment of whether the National Insurance Fund, which pays contributory benefits including the State Pension, can meet its commitments over the coming decades. It projected exhaustion within the period to 2085¹. The next review, with an effective date of 1 April 2025, has not yet been published, so no updated long-term position has been reported¹.

For people receiving benefits paid from the Fund, the report confirms rates rising from April 2026, including the basic State Pension to £184.90 a week and the new State Pension to £241.30 a week¹. The State Pension age is increasing from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and March 2028¹. For employees using salary sacrifice to pay into a pension, the report sets out that from 6 April 2029 only the first £2,000 a year of employer contributions made that way will be exempt from NICs, with employer and employee NICs charged on any excess¹. The report also notes that outcomes from the third State Pension age review may have a significant impact on future projections of the Fund balance¹.

What happens next

The next Quinquennial Review of the Fund, with an effective date of 1 April 2025, will provide updated longer-term projections¹. The third State Pension age review and the Pensions Commission, launched in July 2025, are both currently considering aspects of the overall pensions system in the UK¹. The report does not include projections for the Northern Ireland National Insurance Fund¹.