DWP publishes updated poverty impact analysis for Spring Statement social security changes

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) published an updated poverty impact analysis on 30 June 2025 covering the social security changes announced in the Spring Statement. The analysis applies to England, Scotland and Wales¹.

The revision reflects two changes to the previously announced policy: the changed entitlement rules for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will apply to new claims only, and benefit rates have been adjusted so that existing Limited Capability for Work Related Activity (LCWRA) claimants, prior to April 2026, do not lose out in real terms¹.

"This publication updates previous analysis to account for changes to apply the changed entitlement rules for Personal Independence Payment ( PIP ) to new claims only and changes to benefit rates to ensure existing Limited Capability for Work Related Activity ( LCWRA ) claimants (prior to April 2026) do not lose out in real terms."

Department for Work and Pensions, Spring statement social security changes, updated impact on poverty levels in Great Britain¹

Excluding the impact of additional employment support, the DWP estimates there will be an additional 150,000 working age adults in relative poverty after housing costs in the financial year ending (FYE) 2030 as a result of the modelled changes, compared with baseline projections. The impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is expected to be negligible¹.

The estimate does not include any potential positive impact of the bolstered £1 billion annual funding by FYE 2030, or the additional £300 million of support in this spending review period being brought forward. The DWP says these measures will support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into employment, which it expects to mitigate the poverty impact among people it supports into work¹.

The DWP says the latest policy changes reduce the poverty impact because existing recipients are now protected, and that the poverty impacts occur from potential future recipients no longer receiving money that was assumed in the baseline projections¹.

Why it matters for households

The figures cover Great Britain, so they apply to households in England, Scotland and Wales¹. The 150,000 additional working age adults in relative poverty after housing costs are projected for FYE 2030, not for the current year¹.

The analysis distinguishes between existing and future claimants. Existing LCWRA claimants, prior to April 2026, are covered by the rate changes intended to prevent them losing out in real terms, and the changed PIP entitlement rules apply to new claims only¹. The projected poverty impact therefore arises from potential future recipients rather than from people already receiving these benefits¹.

The estimate excludes the £1 billion annual funding by FYE 2030 and the £300 million of support being brought forward in this spending review period, both of which the DWP expects to mitigate the poverty impact among people supported into work¹. The published figure of 150,000 is therefore a projection that does not account for those measures.

Pensioners and children are expected to see a negligible impact on poverty numbers¹.