OBR publishes forecast alongside Spring Statement 2025

The Office for Budget Responsibility published its forecast alongside the Spring Statement on 1 March 2025, and the charity Z2K says that forecast "exposed the lack of evidence underpinning the government's proposals" on disability benefits¹. The same day, the government published impact assessments covering its planned cuts, which Z2K describes as setting out "the devastating effect that the government's plans will have on disabled people"¹.

According to Z2K's briefing on the Spring Statement, the cuts will see some disabled people lose over 60% of their income, as a result of the combined effect of restrictions to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and changes to incapacity benefit criteria¹. The government's new impact assessments show the cuts will push 50,000 additional children into absolute poverty, Z2K says¹. The equality impact assessment published by the government shows that 1 in 5 of all disabled people in the UK will see their income directly cut under these plans¹. Z2K adds that 3 in 4 people who receive Universal Credit and disability benefits are already struggling to afford the essentials¹.

Z2K says the restrictions to PIP are poorly targeted, and that some of the people the government has assessed as being the most severely disabled, those receiving the enhanced rate of PIP, will see their support slashed¹. Evidence from Z2K's advice services suggests those who will lose out include double amputees, people with psychosis and stroke survivors¹.

Z2K also states that the OBR pointed out that recent history has repeatedly shown that restricting eligibility for disability payments does not generate reliable savings¹. The charity says its clients report that having their support cut drives them further from the labour market, which it says will cost the government more in the long run¹. It describes the package as a "slapdash cost-cutting exercise that was thrown together at the last minute", following what it calls eleventh-hour extra social security cuts announced at the Spring Statement¹.

Why it matters for households

The changes described affect people of working age who receive disability benefits, including PIP and incapacity benefits, and their families. Z2K's figures indicate that 1 in 5 disabled people in the UK would have their income directly cut, that some would lose over 60% of their income, and that 50,000 additional children would be pushed into absolute poverty¹. The briefing says the cuts would push more disabled people into destitution and drive up food bank use¹. It also says the government has claimed that disabled people with the highest needs will be protected, while stating that some people on the enhanced rate of PIP will see support reduced¹. The briefing does not set out the dates on which individual changes take effect. For background on the benefits involved, see the site's benefits pages.

What happens next

Z2K says it is calling on all MPs to raise concerns about the plans and is asking MPs to arrange meetings with the charity so it can share information about the impact in their constituencies¹. No further parliamentary timetable or implementation dates are given in the briefing.