Publication of estimated claimant numbers affected by Work Capability Assessment reforms

The Department for Work and Pensions published statistics on 18 April 2024 giving the estimated number of claimants affected by each of the Work Capability Assessment reform changes announced at Autumn Statement 2023¹. The release applies to England, Scotland and Wales¹.

The figures follow a "supplementary forecast information" release from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which contained estimates of the number of claimants affected per reform¹. The new publication updates those figures to be consistent with Spring Budget 2024 forecasts¹.

The publication is a research and analysis release from the Department for Work and Pensions¹. The document itself is titled "Work Capability Assessment Reform: update to estimated number of claimants affected"¹.

The sources do not give the revised claimant numbers, the individual reform measures, or the size of any change from the earlier OBR estimates. Those figures have not been reported here.

Why it matters for households

The release concerns people who claim benefits and whose entitlement involves a Work Capability Assessment. The estimates cover how many claimants are expected to be affected by each reform change, but the sources do not set out which claimants, on what grounds, or from what date any change takes effect. The only date given is the publication date of 18 April 2024, and the only scope given is England, Scotland and Wales¹.

Because the figures have been restated to align with Spring Budget 2024 forecasts, the numbers now published may differ from those issued alongside Autumn Statement 2023. The sources do not state the size or direction of any such difference, so the practical effect on individual awards, payment levels or assessment outcomes cannot be established from them.

What happens next

No further steps are set out in the sources. The publication does not give a timetable for the reform changes themselves, nor any date on which the revised estimates will next be updated.