Managed migration planned to complete by end of 2023

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) published its response to a Social Security Advisory Committee (SSAC) consultation on the draft Universal Credit (Transitional Provisions) (Managed Migration) Amendment Regulations 2018 on 24 August 2018¹. The briefing sets out the Department for Work and Pensions' planned timetable for managed migration from legacy benefits to Universal Credit.

Under those plans, tests of managed migration were to begin in January 2019, with volumes increasing from mid-2019 and completing by, in JRF's words, "presumably the end of" 2023¹. At that point it was estimated that nearly three million people would have moved to Universal Credit from legacy benefits, especially Tax Credits and Employment and Support Allowance¹. JRF said that at full pace 95,000 people would move onto Universal Credit each month, the majority being parents in work and disabled people¹.

JRF described the timetable as ambitious, noting that it had taken five and a half years to reach full, Great Britain-wide rollout of the basic service, and that completing migration within four and a half years "looks ambitious" on that basis¹. It also said it was not yet clear what effect the mitigations announced in the 2017 Budget had had on delays and the financial difficulties experienced by claimants¹.

On how claimants would be contacted, JRF set out that current plans were to write to claimants and their partners with a generic letter at least four, and up to six, months before their move onto Universal Credit, followed by a notification telling them to make a new claim by a specific date with at least one month's, and up to three months', notice¹. If a new claim was not made by the deadline, all existing relevant benefits would be stopped¹. JRF called this "one of the biggest areas of risk in the migration process" and said it risked leaving people destitute¹.

The briefing also covered transitional protection, which it described as a central part of the proposals, and said two new features providing extra protection for those with fluctuating earnings or child costs were "to be applauded"¹. It noted a six-month grace period before the minimum income floor is applied to self-employed people who migrate, which it called a beneficial proposal¹. JRF said the department should set out estimates of who is likely to benefit from transitional protection, for what period, and the effects on household incomes and poverty¹.

Why it matters for households

The plans described cover people still claiming legacy working-age benefits, particularly Tax Credits and Employment and Support Allowance, who would be moved to Universal Credit rather than transferring automatically¹. The practical effect set out in the briefing is that a household receives a letter months ahead of the move, then a notification requiring a new Universal Credit claim by a stated date; missing that date means existing benefits stop¹. JRF flagged the risk of destitution where claims end for reasons including department error, and said safeguards for people with complex needs or vulnerabilities, including home visits, would need to be fully resourced¹. The briefing also raised the position of self-employed claimants, who would have six months before the minimum income floor applied¹. The timetable and figures above are as reported in August 2018; later changes to the migration schedule have not been reported here.

What happens next

JRF recommended that the DWP review the state of Universal Credit at the end of 2018 and demonstrate the system was ready before managed migration began, re-assessing timescales if necessary¹. It called for a full monitoring and evaluation plan for what the department intended to test from 2019, with ongoing updates on changes in delivery or policy design, and for clarity on plans and resources for communicating with claimants¹. It also recommended publishing detailed scenarios for different migration timetables, including the effects of a slower or delayed start on the rate of transition required nearer to 2023¹.